RODNEY HIDE: China Rising, America Falling? The Delusion Persists in Wellington
- Administrator
- 7 hours ago
- 2 min read
In Wellington salons and certain Auckland boardrooms, the conventional wisdom is settled: China is the unstoppable rising power, the United States is in terminal decline, and New Zealand had better hedge accordingly. Smart diplomats, we are told, accommodate Beijing while quietly distancing ourselves from a fading superpower.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
As Victor Davis Hanson pointed out in his recent podcast, this narrative is historically illiterate. America has been written off repeatedly — in the 1930s, after Vietnam, during the 1970s stagflation, and again in the 1980s when Japan was supposed to eat their lunch. Each time, the United States reinvented itself and surged ahead. The same pattern is repeating now, only the gap with China is widening, not narrowing.
Military Power
China boasts the world’s largest navy by hull count, but numbers deceive. The US Navy operates 11 nuclear-powered supercarriers with global reach and battle-hardened experience. China has three carriers, none comparable in capability or power projection. America’s submarine fleet — especially its nuclear attack boats — is vastly superior in stealth, training and combat effectiveness. US air power remains unmatched: over 13,000 aircraft, including advanced fifth-generation fighters like the F-35 and F-22, against China’s roughly 3,500.
Crucially, America’s military is built for global power projection and sustained operations far from home. China’s forces remain largely a regional “green-water” navy, optimised for the near seas. Its equipment is often derivative of stolen or reverse-engineered Western technology, and its lack of recent combat experience shows. Hanson notes that in any serious confrontation, the US holds decisive qualitative and logistical edges.
Energy, Economy and Demographics
The US is the world’s undisputed energy superpower. It produces more oil and gas than any other nation and can turn the taps on or off at will. China remains dangerously dependent on imported energy. America’s economy is more innovative, dynamic and resilient. Its universities, venture capital markets, AI leadership and tech ecosystem have no peer. China’s growth model is sputtering — a collapsing property sector, hidden local government debt, and a demographic cliff caused by the one-child disaster. By 2050 it will have tens of millions fewer workers and a mountain of elderly with no one to support them.
Hanson is blunt: Trump holds the leverage, not Xi. America can afford strategic ambiguity and tough tariffs. Beijing is playing defence — brittle, paranoid and increasingly isolated. Its proxy network is fraying.
The decline narrative flatters Beijing and excuses weak-kneed diplomacy in places like Wellington. It lets officials pretend that kowtowing to the CCP is sophisticated realism rather than short-term commercial opportunism at the expense of long-term strategic sanity.
New Zealand should stop hedging against America and start betting on the proven engine of prosperity and freedom. Free markets, the rule of law, secure property rights and energy abundance have delivered the goods for two centuries. China’s state-directed model is producing ghost cities, youth unemployment and a surveillance state that even its own people increasingly resent.
The smart money has always been on the republic that keeps reinventing itself, not the dictatorship racing toward demographic and economic senescence. Hanson is right: reports of America’s decline have been greatly exaggerated — again. Beijing knows it. It is time Wellington did too.
Rodney Hide is a former minister and ACT party leader
Great writing Rodney. You’re assessment is correct in every detail. The naysayers who all,seem to be suffering from Acute TDS are showing their ignorance of the successes of the USA under Trump.
Rodney, your enthusiasm for the USA is only matched by your enthusiasm for Israel & your religious beliefs. Both misplaced.
One only has to look at how ineffective the US carriers have been in recent times in the Middle East conflict. They daren't come within 1000km of Iran for fear of being put out of action, one way or another. China would sink any US ship in the blink of an eye with rockets. They are a floating target - is this not obvious to you ?
The same goes for aircraft & tanks. The Ukraine war shows ineffective they are against manpads, missile defences & portable anti-tank guided missiles and drones.
All three above are yesterday's weapon systems.
On…
Oh Rodney.
You might be correct in your assessment but much of the recorded history of our species suggests otherwise to me. History indicates that the rise and fall of empires and civilizations is almost inevitable.
Even the great Roman Empire could not overcome what seems like a natural cycle.
It might be more about when than if the USA's empire that New Zealand is a small part of finally fails.
In every similar cycle of the past most people denied the indications of decline and failure of the current hegemon.
If only wishing made it so.
Perhaps the failure is always due to the unfortunate fact that authority and power always corrupt those who seek and gain them? If so, this…
Good. Victor Davis Hanson is like Kryptonite for "popular" derangements about MAGA generally and Trump himself in particular. A lot actually depends on America not self-immolating, which is what would be happening if Kamala had won and the Democrats controlled both houses of Congress, plus of course the Deep State. Team Trump is an object lesson in countering the enemies within western civilization as well as threats without.
In my view over the next few 10s of years, who achieves ascendency will depend on who can develop the smartest AI. Also of absolute relevance to military power of course. China has what might be referred to as a massive grade 2 rollout, with the USA grade 1, more restrained. It's a space race but with far more at stake. My money is on the USA even though personally, I find myself using China developed LLMs extensively, because for many purposes they provide a much less expensive slightly less smart service that is good enough for most grind work. Although for harder problems its USA no question. A similar difference shows itself in current military capability of the nat…