OLIVER HARTWICH: Memory is a terrible statistician
- Administrator
- Jul 12
- 2 min read
Nostalgia is a wonderful state of mind but, almost by definition, it glorifies the past while ignoring things that were not so good.
Many older New Zealanders are nostalgic for the 1970s. But 1973 saw 843 people die on the roads, the worst road toll on record. Of every 1,000 babies born in 1970, almost 17 died before their first birthday. More than a third of adults smoked. The top income tax rate was 60%, and inflation was about to slip its leash.
Not everything has improved since then, of course. A country that ranked third in the world for income per head in the 1950s ranked 37th by 2024. The productivity gap with the top half of the OECD has widened from 34% in 1996 to about 40%. School results have been sliding for a quarter of a century.
So, are we a country in decline or a success story? The honest answer is neither. It’s a mixed bag. The only way to see that is to stop trusting memory and check the record.
That is what my colleague Bryce Wilkinson and I have done in New Zealand by Numbers, published this week. The book traces more than a hundred measures of New Zealand life, most reaching back to 1970 and beyond. Only the long view reveals the trend.
Some findings will surprise pessimists. Life expectancy has risen by almost eleven years since 1970. Last year’s provisional road toll was 272, with far more people driving far more cars. And of every 1,000 babies born last year, four died before their first birthday, not 17.
Other findings should unsettle the complacent. Houses still cost far too much, though the charts are beginning to show what happens now that we are finally letting people build. School results continue to worry us more than anything else in the book. And each year, our ageing population requires fewer workers to support more retirees.
Countries do not decline or improve in one piece. They do both at once, in different places, at different speeds, and usually too slowly for anyone to notice.
The good old days are in the book but they were probably not quite as good as you remember.
Dr Oliver Hartwich is the executive director of The New Zealand Initiative
Download ‘New Zealand by Numbers – 2026 Edition’ from the NZ Initiative website.
The Business Roundtable played a part in creating "today" (including the Racist Brains " advertisements to counter Winston Peters at the 1996 election).
Seymour and Bishop say Winston has "lost that argument" (New Zealand is better now).
Ranginui Walker:
Six houses where there was one. Driveway down the center. Later a developer Bingo Homes from Wigram take all their sun. Michael Reddell is correct: we reached our potential and kept adding people. Houston we have a credibility problem.
Some infant death figures.
1970 16.5 per 1000 pregnancies
2025 3.6. pet 1000 pregnancies
Looks good doesn’t it.
Now look at the abortion rate
1970 5 per 1000 pregnancies
2025 232 per 1000 pregnancies.
So infants surviving at age one year per 1000 pregnancies in NZ?
1970 980 children
2025 263 children.
Dr Hartwich might see that as a improvement but I certainly don’t
There is no collective answer to a spiritual/moral problem.
Some replies here keep looking for trout in the trees and kerygma in the creek.
The old dude and blind Freddie would both say.... (without comparing the obvious plus or minus of any political interference )..... along with the influx of lousy music.
...just equate the ease of attaining your past and present standard of living.
End of story really