LINDSAY MITCHELL: Latest benefit numbers - beware the spin
- Administrator
- 3 hours ago
- 1 min read
Await some spin regarding falling beneficiary numbers.
But be skeptical.
After two months of data problems, MSD has managed to produce monthly statistics for February 2026.
The total percentage of working-age people on a benefit has dropped from 13.1% in December 2025 to 12.8 percent in February 2026.
However, benefit numbers are consistently subject to seasonal changes. For example, students pile onto the Jobseeker Support Student Hardship over summer.
What really matters is the year-on-year comparison.
In February 2025 the percentage of working-age people on a benefit was 12.4 percent. Now it's 12.8 percent. Up.
And if you hear about higher cancellations of benefits, that's largely due to people cancelling their Jobseeker Support Student Hardship.
And by the way, those cancellations mainly constitute a transfer back to Student Allowance. Another 'benefit' but one that comes out of the Ministry of Education's budget.
In the chart below, what matters is the final right-hand column. All the big number benefits are up.
National need to see blue, not red figures. For all their well-intentioned work-activation policies, the bulk of people forming the statistics below will stay put without some radical re-think.
NB: Because data was lost for December and January, the "monthly" change actually covers three months.
Access other recent Brash & Mitchell posts at www.brashandmitchell.com
Lindsay, would like to see your stats on Working Income for Families - what that's costing us (tax rebates) where effectively no tax is paid.
Where are the stats for the cost of resthome care provided by NZ taxpayers for immigrant elderly (family reunification) who have lived in our country for 10 yrs or worked for 5 yrs, they have hardly contributed taxes if anything, costing NZ taxpayers on average $7,000 per month.
Seems some groups have been selectively overlooked.
https://x.com/Charteddaily
Can't blame the "system issues" on not enough staff....
There is an AI based GDP and Inflation project from Massey is it time to reduce the staff at the various govt organizations by say as a starter 50% and use an AI project to build an alternative.
The savings would be worth it and the activists would be gone.
How the hell was it LOST
Lindsay, I like the way our articles are short and to the point. Excellent. Keep that going. Well done. Thank you.