JOHN RAINE: It’s Election Year but Are They Listening?

Wobbly Democracy in the Western World

Danyl McLauchlan’s Listener article [1] on New Zealand’s voter tribes highlights the complexity the political parties face in harvesting votes, particularly from the “alienated conservatives” and “precarious left.”

The article also touches on something else - trust in government. Western democracy is not doing well - authoritarian behaviour from governments on issues where they do not have a mandate, and public service bureaucracies (not much of a stretch to say “deep state”) undermining elected governments. Governments also ignore information/advice that would steer them away from counterproductive policy.

The UK government has been betraying the country’s citizens on freedom of speech, energy, and immigration policies. They may claim to follow EU open-borders policy in ignoring the welfare of their own citizens to give economic support to undocumented immigrants. Conveniently, though, it secures more votes over time as such immigrants gain citizenship.  

In Australia, the Albanese government is similarly soft on antisemitic activism and determined to keep pursuing its wind/solar renewable energy agenda despite a steady rise in power prices, industries going to the wall, and pensioners having to choose between turning on the heater or having a hot meal [2].

Donald Trump’s populist re-election reflected middle-America voters fed up with not being heard on economic and social issues, including immigration and the critical social justice agenda of the left. They now have an authoritarian President who was selling a reset. History will judge whether and how much his presidency benefitted the USA.

New Zealand has seen a steady march towards authoritarianism in the public service and judiciary. In contrast, the Coalition Government, or at least the National party, has steered away from strong positions on some issues critical to getting our economy really firing, and to unifying our society.

The Coalition has had only limited success in wrestling with a swamp full of financial and economic alligators they inherited late 2023. Polls show that the electorate memory is bettered by goldfish, and the November 2026 election currently looks finely poised - an opportunity for stronger policy from the Coalition if re-elected, and potential deterioration in long-term debt and in the productive economy if an incoming Labour-led government refreshes policies from the 2017-2023 period.

The Economy

A stark indicator of how New Zealand has drifted, through poor productivity and slow economic growth, is that on 27^th February 2026, at the start of the USA-Israel-Iran war, the USA S&P 500 share market Index closed at 6,908.86, over 107% up from its 20^th January 2020 pre-Covid 19 peak of 3,329.62. By comparison, the NZX50 closed at 13,722.97, up only ~15.5% from its 20^th January 2020 level of 11,877.81. Relatively speaking, we have flatlined for several years.

Matthew Hooton (NZ Herald, 27^th February 2026 [3]) painted a grim picture of New Zealand’s economic downward trajectory over the better part of 20 years. Our fragile economic recovery may be stalled by the Iran war and high oil prices deciding the November 2026 election.

Regardless, key policy actions from an incoming government of whatever colour are needed to build a strong economy, a broader high-productivity industry base, and a more unified society. Big stumbling block - the disinclination/inability of the major parties to adopt cross-party policy in critical areas. We may therefore fall before the starting gate. Let’s look at a few (of many) hot button areas where differing party policy could take NZ in quite different directions.

Election Policy Minefields

·           A robust energy system is not optional if we want economic growth and a positive investment environment. Societies throughout history have needed accessible high-density energy to make major economic advances: e.g. coal in the industrial revolution, and later oil, gas and nuclear energy. NZ faces energy shortages and January 2025 saw spot electricity prices of $2,000 - $3,000 per MWh during a low wind period, and daily averages above $500/MWh have occurred during tight hydro periods. Industries already lost include paper production at Tokoroa’s Kinleith Mill and closure of Winstone Pulp International’s Karioi and Tangiwai sites.

We must build more hydro and geothermal plant (and in the future nuclear), but the NZ electricity industry has a misplaced major focus on wind and solar energy for future capacity. Worldwide experience shows that, where the system has a high percentage of wind and solar energy, the power price to the consumer is the highest. They have a limited 15 - 25 year operating life and must be ~50% backed up with high-inertia turbine systems (e.g. coal, gas, hydro, geothermal, nuclear) [2, 4] when there is no sun or wind, as massive battery systems based on current technology are prohibitively costly. Managing grid stability is also a challenge.  

Without a resilient energy system, high energy prices will just inflict further pain on our industries and the wider community, as has occurred in countries with a high percentage wind and solar energy such as the UK, Germany, and now Australia.

Shane Jones [5] could not have stated more bluntly in parliament on 11^th March 2026 that for resilience and prosperity we must use our own natural resources. We urgently need a cross-party accord on gas exploration but the ideological block on this from Labour and the Greens makes it look less likely than the sun rising in the west. Their energy policy would lead to economic misery.

·           NZ must take a realistic approach to carbon emissions and drop the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement goals. The impossibly costly ($500+ Bn) and unnecessary Net Zero 2050 goal should also be consigned to the waste bin. Emissions management and climate change adaptation actions should still be undertaken, but we must move away from the politicisation of CO₂ as the climate change villain [4]. Moreover, while arguments are still being made that emissions performance is becoming a commercial lever useful to NZ farming, not just a compliance issue [6], the regulatory environment has to ensure our efficient farmers keep farming productively, prioritise economic performance, and not turn their farmlands to forests. A National-led coalition will ultimately take a more realistic position on these issues than a Labour-led government.

·           Our tech sector is growing well, with $20 Bn in revenue in 2025, up 9.9% on 2024 [7], but we need broader and deeper capital markets to support industry growth and diversification, and tax incentives to shift investment from property to the productive sector.  Party policies just might be negotiated to align in this area.

·           We should pursue more public-private sector investment partnerships to accelerate infrastructure development. Labour is less amenable in this area.

·           Increase R&D investment by 0.1% per annum from less than 1.5% of GDP to the OECD average of 2.7 - 2.8% within 12 years. How many times does this need saying [8]? Focus this expenditure on high-quality basic science, technology and engineering, together with strong incentives for researchers to benefit financially from the successful commercialisation of their research. Humanities and social sciences research are important to our society, but the funding in recent years of numerous ideologically driven projects (e.g. around gender identity, decolonisation or traditional knowledge) is untenable in a country that needs a laser focus on rebuilding its economy.  Labour has historically opened the taxpayer-funded coffers more for R&D than National, but this issue must be addressed.

·           The education system reforms initiated by the current Coalition Government must be retained and the system focused on merit and knowledge basics for all students – literacy, numeracy, and a grounding in modern science, plus ideally at least one foreign language. Our children also need a factually correct history of New Zealand and other countries from which our people have arrived. Nor can we afford any further capture of young minds (in both schools and universities) with relativist thinking and critical social justice ideology. Labour, however, has stated it would undo the reforms of the Coalition and return to the prioritisation of equal outcomes. This leads inevitably to indoctrination, mediocrity, and the pursuit of excellence being undermined.

·           New Zealand’s OPEX budget would get an uplift through by slashing costs in our bulging Public Service which blew out in employee numbers between 2017 and 2023 from 48,000 to over 64,000, not to mention huge sums being spent on consultants.  The Coalition has so far only nibbled at the necessary pruning. The incoming 2026 Government should trim more than 10,000 administrative jobs, simplifying Ministries and their reporting lines as well, at an average salary of, say, $100,000 and release $1+ Bn towards national infrastructure, health, R&D, and retirement of debt.  This is an obvious opportunity for a National-led coalition, but would they take it? A Labour-Green-Te Pati Māori government would likely increase the size and cost of government.

·           Our economic performance and societal cohesion are compromised by the deadweight on the Public Service and Education sectors of their preoccupation with Te Ao Māori and requirements for training and cultural observances. This has moved from being a reasonable and respectful recognition of Māori culture to being ideological overreach.

Then, there is the economic cost of regulatory requirements for iwi consultation (did I hear someone say grift?) on, for example, environmental, farming and construction projects. The judiciary have complicated this by invoking tikanga on these, but also in the wider application of the law.

The Free Speech Union and other voices have highlighted the overbearing Medical Council (draft) and Nursing Council statements for practising professionals on cultural competence, cultural safety and Hauora Māori [9], which appear to give special rights to one race only. Medical professionals should not be required to affirm specific political interpretations of the Treaty of Waitangi and race relations. Clinical independence of our doctors and nurses has to sit above any cultural demands.

The Treaty of Waitangi is important to our country, but we cannot afford to burden another generation with decolonisation activism or an overlay of costly Treaty-related regulatory impositions. National has remained muted on these issues but, if re-elected, must show some spine on what has become divisive in our society. David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill aimed to give all New Zealand citizens equality under the law and its objectives will doubtless be pursued further. A Labour-Green Te Pati Māori alliance will head towards an administratively inefficient, co-governance system, a loss of democracy and greater risk of corruption. How do we to talk to each other on this key issue without shouting?

Closing Remarks

This article has traversed only a few issues, but they cannot be ignored. NZ is at a critical point where building a diversified and highly productive economy is not optional if we are to manage our debt-to-GDP ratio downwards and avoid the runaway debt faced by countries such as Greece, Italy and the USA and France.

NZ is also finely poised culturally and politically – we may still have a future as a healthy democracy, or we can head towards a complex and less stable future of decolonisation and tribal co-governance.

The crunch is that to achieve the necessary, we need actions that the democratic process will most likely not deliver in November 2026 unless a new government is bold enough to make policy independent of international or local-activist pressures, with tight fiscal resolve and reshaped investment incentives. The worst outcome will be a government that settles back into tax and spend mode.

Economically, but not culturally, we could get sorted with a Singaporean-type quasi one-party government for 10-15 years. It seems unlikely overall that we will have a government on a three-year MMP electoral cycle courageous enough to take the tough decisions needed. In this case, democracy will have failed us.

John Raine is an Emeritus Professor of Engineering and has worked in Deputy Vice Chancellor and Pro Vice Chancellor roles in three New Zealand Universities. He chaired the 2011 Ministry of Science and Innovation “Powering Innovation” Review.

This article first appeared on John Raine’s Substack. https://jkr31350.substack.com/p/its-election-year-but-are-they-listening 

References

1.         Danyl McLauchlan, “Going Tribal”. Listener, 14^th March 2026, pp16-23. www.listener.co.nz 

2.         Chris Uhlmann, “The Real Cost of Net Zero: The shocking truth of the renewable energy push”. Sky News Australia documentary, 19^th November 2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbxpieEQ7bc&t=1s 

3.         Matthew Hooton, “Luxon, Hipkins and 17 years of drift leaving living standards stagnant”, New Zealand Herald 27^th February 2026

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/luxon-hipkins-and-17-years-of-drift-leaving-living-standards-stagnant-matthewhooton/premium/ VYM7WVDFFVBULIHUZ7VDLECQ4I/)

4.         John Raine, “Climate and Energy Policy Realism Not Virtue Signalling, Please”. Breaking Views NZ 26^th February 2026. https://breakingviewsnz.blogspot.com/2026/02/professor-john-raine-climate-and-energy.html#more 

5.         Shane Jones. Speech on use of our natural resources in the NZ parliament 11^th March 2026. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d48hTu2nq5E

6.         Low emissions Farming   https://mailchi.mp/ag-emissions.nz/httpswwwag-emissionsnz-16563224?e=d6d478926d 

7.         2025 Report of the Technology Industry Network https://www.flipsnack.com/tin100/tin-technology-report-2025/full-view.html 

8.         John Raine, Mina Teicher, Philip O’Reilly, “Powering Innovation – Improving Access to and Uptake of R&D in the High Value Manufacturing and Services Sectors.” A report to the Ministry of Science and Innovation, ISBN: 978-0-478-06181-9, 28 April 2011, 112pp.

9.         Medical Council of New Zealand. “Consultation – Draft Statements on Cultural Competence, Cultural Safety, and Hauora Māori”. https://www.mcnz.org.nz/about-us/consultations/consultation-draft-statements-on-cultural-competence-cultural-safety-and-hauora-maori/ 

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