RODNEY HIDE: Here are Opportunity's opportunities, none of them good

There are two possibilities for the Opportunity Party following the specials. The first is bad for them. That is that the centre-right can form a government without them. The second is even worse. That is that the centre-right needs them.

Let me explain.

The trouble for the Opportunity Party is that they're no longer the outsiders offering something new, with the media doing all their heavy lifting. They're now in Parliament and insiders. They'll quickly discover that it's the government that sets the agenda, and all they can do is respond.

Also, in opposition, they'll disappear. There are now four political parties in opposition. It's tough even being the leader of the opposition. People don't really care what you think, and the media don't write you up. It's not called the toughest job in politics for no reason.

But at least Chris Hipkins, or whoever the leader of the Labour Party is, has some heft. They are the largest party in opposition, and they have a long history and track record. And so for that reason, they do at least get some coverage, albeit always responding to what the government is doing rather than setting the agenda.

The Greens have discovered how tough it is to be in opposition. They have to find more and more extreme positions to get coverage. They only get written up when they say stupid things, like Marama Davidson telling us she knows who causes violence in the world: "it is white cis men." Or "from the river to the sea." Or that women can have penises.

So the Greens struggle. Just look at the above. They're no longer the environmental party because people are no longer interested in what they have to say.

Indeed. It's not for nothing that the only place they gained votes this election was in the Maori seats. Nationwide, their vote went down.

They have become wedded to the Maori Party, wanting to make the Treaty sacred text, saying things it clearly does not, and able to be re-interpreted as a living document.

The Maori Party don't have to struggle for relevance quite the same. Governments have set up their own news network for them to campaign in, and they talk directly to their electorates, to the 55 percent of enrolled Maori who choose the Maori roll. To get in the legacy media, they have to do a haka in Parliament, poke their tongue out, or say the most inflammatory thing they can think of.

That's the competition in opposition that the Opportunity Party is up against. They appear as a bunch of environmental consultants and public servants, more at home at a seminar exploring each other's feelings and how bad the world is because people like me still drive round in trucks.

They're going to struggle to get cut through in opposition. Their members and their voters will be upset with them that they haven't achieved Net Zero, that they're there in Parliament achieving nothing. Their explanation that they are not the Government won't wash.

So it's bad for the Opportunity Party in opposition. It's even worse for them in government.

Imagine a hung parliament where Chris Hipkins doesn't have the numbers to form a government, but Christopher Luxon does, if he gets the Opportunity Party to support him. You might think that support is impossible, but it's not.

The Opportunity Party will have a real problem if the centre-right needs their vote. That's because they don't have the bargaining strength that you would think.

Christopher Luxon can happily call them out on the worst of their five bottom lines: phasing out bottom trawling. As Richard Prebble points out, just 1.7 percent of our waters were bottom trawled last fishing year, yet trawling on or near the seabed brings in 68 percent of our commercial catch. And a ban would cut into the fisheries assets Maori received under their Treaty settlement. Mr Luxon can just explain it's a bridge too far. The cost is too high for the country. And that he couldn't work with them. Another election over bottom trawling? Really?

At that point, it's their fault. We're heading for a new election in the new year. The Opportunity Party will be seen and painted by Mr Luxon as the cause of a whole new election. They will be crushed by the voters.

They will know this, or it'll be pointed out to them, or they will figure it out, and that limits their bargaining strength. They could offer just confidence and supply and stay out of government, but I don't think Mr Luxon would be silly enough to become their plaything. And so you're back to an election.

Now consider if there's an election. Glory be, this time the voters will know exactly what to do. The Opportunity Party will be tossed because they could not form a stable government and caused the expense and hassle of an election. I doubt there is five percent in bottom trawling.

Voters will have figured out how to split their vote. Even more will give their constituency vote to National and their party votes to either New Zealand First or to ACT. New Zealand First and ACT won't stand candidates in pivotal constituency seats. Mr Bishop will win Hutt South next time, for example.

National will be returned with even more electorates and more seats, and New Zealand First and ACT will be returned with even more seats. It won't be a close election. It'll be a huge win to the centre-right, all brought about by the Maori Party in the beginning going for the overhang, and by the Opportunity Party making five percent.

The Opportunity Party now faces disappearing in opposition, being blamed for everything the centre right government does, or causing a fresh election. They are not good options.

Rodney Hide is a former Minister and ACT Party leader