RODNEY HIDE - Breaking news, 15 December: “He’s done it again!”

Mr Winston Peters remains New Zealand’s most enduring and adaptable political survivor. First elected to Parliament in 1978—just months after Sir Keith Holyoake resigned as Governor-General -- Mr Peters and Sir Keith bridge nearly a century of our parliamentary history. Sir Keith entered Parliament in 1932; together, these two men span the modern era. With his bearing and suits, Mr Peters would have slotted seamlessly into Sir Keith’s cabinet. Yet unlike the tuatara, frozen in its Jurassic adaptations, Mr Peters thrives in new terrain. He masters social media with a precision few politicians match, turning tweets into scalpel-sharp commentary.

His policy positions have evolved: the staunch Muldoonist became a fierce opponent of Rogernomics, a vocal critic of high immigration, a defender of the provinces, and a consistent opponent of woke social engineering. What endures is the core: fierce nationalism, instinctive appeal to the ordinary Kiwi, and deep scepticism toward intellectual elites and rapid societal overhaul. Mr Peters sells stability in turbulent times.

Current polling and voter fatigue suggest a strong performance for New Zealand First this election. Mr Chris Hipkins appears exhausted, and the public shares that weariness. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has failed to ignite broad enthusiasm. The Greens, ACT, and Māori Party each hit natural ceilings. Mr Peters is positioned to draw votes from across the spectrum -- particularly from National, and to a lesser extent Labour -- capitalising on discontent with the major parties.

History shows Mr Peters excels as kingmaker. He has supported National twice (under PM Jim Bolger and PM Christopher Luxon) and Labour twice (under PM Helen Clark and PM Jacinda Ardern). Despite his emphatic public denials, I predict he will ultimately coalesce with Labour after this election. They will offer the better deal, and Peters has never, ever allowed past statements to constrain his options.

Recall his campaign to remove National from power, only to prop them up. Or the famous “NO” billboard. Or his refusal of the “baubles of office,” only to serve as PM Helen Clark’s Foreign Minister outside Cabinet. Mr Peters can readily justify a Labour arrangement: the voters have spoken; Labour secured the largest share; keeping the Greens and Te Pāti Māori out preserves stability. Job done.

Commentators note New Zealand First’s candidate list leans centre-right. That observation misses the point. Mr Peters leads New Zealand First. Existing legislation allows him to manage caucus discipline effectively if needed.  Those who don’t support the government can be kicked out.

Two caveats apply. First, Mr Peters himself likely does not yet know his final destination -- he refuses negotiations until the votes are counted. Second, I hope New Zealand First candidate Mr Alfred Ngaro returns to Parliament. A principled and capable man, he would strengthen the House and serve the country well.

Mr Winston Peters embodies a persistent strain in New Zealand politics: distrust of overreach from Wellington elites and a preference for pragmatic nationalism. Whether one agrees with his worldview or not, his resilience and tactical skill command respect. As the votes come in, do not be surprised if the old campaigner once again holds the balance of power. In a fragmented Parliament, the tuatara that adapts survives.  And do not be surprised who he makes Prime Minister.  Unlike the tuatara, Mr Peters is never constrained by the past.

Rodney Hide is a former Minister and ACT party leader