RICHARD PREBBLE: What can we read into the TVNZ poll?
I have a reputation for being able to read polls. Pollsters used to ask me for my analysis. My immediate reaction is to wait and see if it is a trend.
Having got the product warning out of the way, the TVNZ-Verian poll has a good record of predicting election results, with one proviso. The polls have repeatedly misjudged minor-party support.
My pick for the party most at risk of missing the 5% threshold is TOP, whose strongest support comes from young men, notoriously unreliable voters.
Labour’s 27% is disastrous. Chris Hipkins’ personal polling is no better.
I think Labour is collateral damage from the Greens’ association with gangs. Labour supporters are shocked.
National’s four-point rise to 32% is significant. More significant is the possibility that voters are switching from Labour to National.
Voters crossing the political divide change elections.
But the most remarkable finding concerns ACT and NZ First.
For 30 years under MMP, being a junior partner in a formal coalition has been electorally disastrous.
Yet ACT is polling 11%, compared with 8.6% in 2023. NZ First, despite dropping two points, is polling 8%, compared with 6.1% at the last election.
Both coalition partners are ahead of their last election results. That is extraordinary.
National remains six points below its 2023 result. But another finding offers encouragement.
A major study of 84 European elections found that increasing consumer confidence was associated with stronger electoral performance by governing parties. There seems to be an association in New Zealand too.
Back in April, 52% of New Zealanders expected the economy to worsen. Just 26% expected improvement.
Last night, 43% expected improvement and just 21% expected the economy to worsen over the next 12 months.
A remarkable turnaround.
Economic optimism does not decide elections. But it matters.
Has National timed its run just right?
Richard Prebble is a former Minister and ACT Party leader
As usual you're on the money Richard. If National have timed their run just right, I would suggest it's pure luck. In my opinion they couldn't time anything right. Most of their recent big policy announcements should have occured in the first year of office.
Could be, you're right. Young men, basically stupid, could fail to vote, thus killing orf Opportuniddies.... If they don't, we'll have to find other ways of killing orf the "Opportunists" because no good will come of them - a good name for last people we need in politics.
Something about chickens & roosting are afflicting the alt left...
Absolute bullshit; “a major study of 84 European elections found that increasing consumer confidence was associated with stronger electoral performance by governing parties. There seems to be an association in New Zealand too”. So says a well known globalist.
In Germany, France & the UK the majority now hate the ruling centre left/centre right globalist establishment parties. All those nations are becoming extremely polarised between extreme left & hard right, especially Germany & France & some smaller nations like Holland.
In the Spanish election in November it looks the voters will boot the extremist progressive socialists to the curb & install a hard right government. Let's not even talk about the basket Balkans e.g. corrupt as hell, Brussels dictatorship loving…
They (Nats) are still a fence sitting party that doesn't deal with the hard issues that shape our country.
ie maori issues!!!!!!