RICHARD PREBBLE - The First Turning Point: TOP Commits Suicide
We have witnessed one of the election’s turning points.
There are turning points in every election. Sometimes it is a debate performance. Often it is a statement that alienates either possible voters or the party’s activists.
All parties run two campaigns. One to motivate their supporters to donate and volunteer, and another to attract voters.
It is a balancing act.
One campaign without the other does not work.
The reason why in the Kingmaker debate none of the leaders would spell out their bottom lines was that whatever they said would alienate either their supporters or potential voters.
In the 1999 campaign, when I said I supported privatisation, the ACT members loved it and voters who thought the railways were an asset hated it. We dropped 3% in the next poll.
I would bet my parliamentary super that TOP party members joined because they supported land tax and a guaranteed income. Not one joined for what are now the party’s five bottom lines.
As for voters. TOP’s support collapsed at the previous election when voters realised the party wanted to get rid of Moggie. Who knew that TOP’s bottom line is protecting Nemo?
If your priority is banning trawling in the Pacific Ocean you would vote Green.
Qiulae Wong has written a five-point suicide note.
Before a single vote is counted Qiulae has signalled she is selling out the party’s flagship policies and she will do any deal with anyone.
Qiulae Wong is fourth in Mt Albert on 10 per cent. TOP is polling at 6 per cent, and it has been below the 5 per cent threshold in another recent poll.
The five bottom lines will sink TOP.
TOP is in the dustbin before the first vote is cast.
Richard Prebble is a former Minister and ACT Party leader who writes at I've Been Thinking
All eyes will be on TOP and the 5% threshold on Election night. Their secret weapon is the young voters who traditionally don't bother to vote. They may come out in force for TOP. If they reach 5%, it will have a profound effect on NZ politics. Especially if they decide to sit on the cross benches. TOP may be the wild card in this election but they are keeping me awake at night!
The policy of envy and jeoliosy alwways appears in elections,I hope wise people can see further than this!!
A big unknown, until a week after 7th November, is how the special votes from abroad will fall. In previous elections they have favoured the Left, particularly the Greens. If things are very close on election day, the special votes may upset the initial apparent outcome.
TOP seems to have come out of nowhere. Mainly because the progressive liberal lefties that dominate the media promoted that party and also included it in the "kingmaker's" debate, that i did niot waste my time watching. Maybe have a closer look at their people, policies and agendas. Most people will not. I had a good look and have decided their main message is "Vote for us to get more of someone else's money".
predicted when top were at the crest of their wave, they would crash & burn, not making 5%... that prophecy is looking more likely every day...