RICHARD PREBBLE: Is the election already over?
I had not intended to vote yesterday.
I like to wait until election day. What if there is a dramatic development?
But at the mall with my eleven-year-old grandson, we encountered a huge polling station. He wanted to see me vote.
It was a slick operation. A queue of all ages moved quickly. A polling clerk told me voting had been heavy all weekend.
By Friday, nearly 600,000 votes had been cast, 32 per cent more than at the same stage in 2023.
When the Electoral Commission publishes the weekend figures today, I would not be surprised if the total approaches a million. That is about a third of the expected vote.
When I was an MP, advance voting required a special reason and a declaration. Since 2011 anyone can vote early.
Now for two weeks polling stations are everywhere.
The Electoral Commission is so efficient that it takes a deliberate decision not to enrol and another deliberate decision not to vote.
That should help the left, especially parties attracting younger voters.
Early voting makes a nonsense of the ban on election-day campaigning when we effectively have twelve election days.
Parties’ daily tracking polls revealed that the final week was often vital for minor parties. Voters often decide late what to do with their second vote.
New parties lack tribal loyalty. Their campaigns matter.
TOP risks missing the threshold, but high enrolment and turnout must assist the party.
The campaign has another week to run but with such high early voting is the election effectively decided?
Richard Prebble is a former Minister and ACT Party leader who writes at I've Been Thinking
Just be patient Richard. We will find out next week which political party elites get the authority to govern the rest of us then. Party elites? Those are the minoroty of party members and very generous donors who decide who will be an electorate candidate that we commoners are allowed to vote for. More importantly they decide who they will appoint to govern the rest of us as a result of how many party votes they solicited from the members of the many divided tribal IDENTITY GROUPS
But wait there is still more excitement to come as the political enemies of the campaign competition for those important party votes decide how to divvy up the spoils by forming a coalition. That's always fun…
Since New Zealanders tend to pronounce the letter e as if it’s an i,
perhaps Labour’s election slogan - ‘better starts now’ - was a poor choice.
I suspect the die is already cast . In my view a Party vote for National will likely prove to be a ‘totally ineffectual / wasted’ vote . To best ensure a centre-right (Coalition) Government ‘Party vote’ ACT or NZ First — NOT National . In my opinion PM Luxon’s advice to ‘Party-vote’ National is egocentric-driven and is strategically inept / incompetent , advice .
Hugh Perrett
The advertising ban is kubuki anyway. In Australia all parties have people outside every polling booth on election day handing out how to vote cards and democracy somehow survives.
How can we tell if advanced voting favours a particular party?
I guess it is.
ACT being the dominant player