RICHARD PREBBLE: Does Luxon know something we don’t?
Commentators are puzzled by Christopher Luxon’s determination to rule out a deal with TOP.
Perhaps Luxon knows something they don’t.
Political parties commission much more sophisticated polling that reveals who their supporters are and what might change their minds.
When I led ACT, all the New Zealand polling companies were already contracted. We were forced to commission an American company. They were far better than any New Zealand pollster.
National employs Britain’s Sancrox Political Advisory. Luxon says he only looks at the party’s internal polls that have been analysed overseas using specialist skills.
I suspect National knows far more about TOP voters than Qiulae Wong does.
What we know from public polling is revealing.
A Talbot Mills poll in July found that 23% of TOP supporters had voted National in 2023, compared with 18% who had voted Labour.
A September Roy Morgan poll found TOP’s strongest support among younger men.
Any party relying on young men for support is in trouble. They are hard to enrol and even harder to get to vote.
Given TOP’s possible kingmaker role, I would be surprised if Sancrox Political Advisory had not conducted focus groups of intending TOP voters.
An experienced moderator asks questions like:
“Would you still vote TOP if Luxon ruled out a deal?”
Suppose former National voters say no, but former Labour voters say yes.
Suddenly Luxon’s stance makes sense.
National wins back voters while TOP retains former Labour voters.
When TOP fails to reach 5% and wins no electorate seat, its party votes do not count towards the allocation of seats.
What commentators regard as Luxon’s inexplicable political blunder could be a calculated election-winning strategy.
But then again, perhaps Luxon just doesn’t understand MMP.
Richard Prebble is a former Minister and ACT Party leader
I hope Luxon does know something that we don’t know! On current polling, even with the most optimistic predicted overhang, it could be very difficult for the coalition to win the election if Opportunity gets over the 5% mark. Assuming the Party vote share of the main 2 parties remains very close, the 4-5 seat predicted National overhang would be cancelled by the likelyMaori overhang, and the total of seats gained by the current coalition partners may or may not be exceeded by that of the Greens plus Opportunity.
The vote splitting-campaign provides an insurance against this situation. Its effect, if successful, would be to maximise both National’s overhang and the total seats gained by its coalition partners. National would lose…
I think the TOP vote is too close to call. If they get 5% it changes everything. If they get less than 5% it will be a right coalition. I have been thinking about another possibility. If TOP get 5%, then Hipkins has a problem. Does he really want a coalition made up of Labour, Greens, Te Pati Maori and TOP? I think not. That would be a coalition made in hell. Likewise, would Luxon want a coalition made up of TOP and a greatly strengthened NZ1 and ACT? I think not. A Grand coalition between Labour and National must have a definite appeal to both Luxon and Hipkins under these circumstances.
I have always been of the opinion that polls without exception only provide an indication at that moment in time.
Remember, a week is a long time in politics.
Top has a communist base, it has no interest in courting Luxon other than attempt pretence of being centrist which it certainly is not
At the time Luxon made the call to rule out Opportunity, it was the right call given the polling and circumstances at THAT time.
Can you imagine the criticism he would receive if he now changed his mind? He can't. Even if in due course it "appears" to have been a wrong or dubious call.