RICHARD PREBBLE: Bad news and more bad news for National
The bad news is that the latest TVNZ–Verian poll has the coalition losing.
The more bad news is that applying a 5% swing based on the poll, National loses nine electorates: Banks Peninsula, Henderson, West Coast–Tasman, Hutt South, Wairarapa, Wigram, East Cape, Kāpiti and Mt Roskill.
That leaves National with 36 electorates.
At 29% of the party vote, National is entitled to 35 MPs. If National wins back Tāmaki, the arithmetic gets even worse.
Not one National list MP would be elected.
I must add many qualifications.
Polls measure the party vote, not the electorate vote.
If the two were the same, ACT would not hold two electorates and the Greens three.
I have assumed a uniform 5% swing from the right to the left.
I have not allocated Opportunity’s support because we do not know where its votes are coming from.
At the last election, nearly 60% of ACT party voters gave their electorate vote to National. Nearly 44% of Green voters gave their electorate vote to Labour. What will they do this election?
The assumptions are considerable.
But the political lesson is clear.
On this poll, the centre-right loses.
National’s two-ticks-for-National strategy is not working.
Strategic voting is going to decide the election.
Other polling indicates Te Pāti Māori will win electorates and its electorate only strategy could be enough to tip the balance.
Christopher Luxon saying he would rather not be in coalition is like saying his plan is to win lotto.
Luxon needs a cup of tea with Seymour. And perhaps Peters too.
Richard Prebble is a former Minister and ACT Party leader who writes at I've Been Thinking
The appointment of Jason Winstanley as CEO of Radio NZ is being hailed as a gamechanger by a contributor to Kiwiblog today, who comments: In 12 months, Radio New Zealand National will be nothing like it is now. If Luxon’s government can do that to this hallowed organization without anybody feeling the needle going in, wait till you see what they do next.
Ironically, the Minister of Broadcasting is Paul Goldsmith, who will be standing against the incumbent, David Seymour, in Epsom. Given National’s party vote polling, if Goldsmith wins, the right gets an extra seat. If he loses, he’s almost certainly out of parliament. David will be returned either way.
As Richard says: it's time for a cup o…
PLEASE read ‘Reply’’ comment to ‘Gazza’ by ‘unknown member’ / Hugh Perrett ( who ( ie Gazza) had replied to an originating ‘comment’ by ‘unknown member’ / Hugh Perrett).
Hugh Perrett
Many voters are saying that voters need to reasses the whole system. I think one commentary added up to 83% for change of some sort. That could include voters choosing the prime minister which makes sense in a representative democracy.
My experience while door knocking for ACT in the area around Cornwall Park Hastings for the last four weeks is that there is not much support for two ticks National or two ticks Labour. Both Main parties have lost support - even from traditional die hard supporters.
A mix of ages and work backgrounds understand vote splitting and current electorate MP Nationals Catherine Wedd has support for the electorate vote. Party Vote support for ACT is strong and much better than indicated in any of the latest polls.
NZFirst has support but there is also a feeling Winston will do what Winston wants (baubles matter to Winston) and despite what he says many feel he might still go with Labour.…
I have a gut feeling the main body of voters will vote traditionally on election day. The wild card is Opportunities. It they get 5%, several possibilities arise. I dont believe for one moment that Luxon would refuse to negotiate with Opportunities. The smart move for Opportunities would be to sit on the cross benches.