PETER WILLIAMS: There’s the Bloody Ball. Use it!

The Nats still have a chance but they have to change tactics

In the famous Ranfurly Shield challenge of 1985 Auckland - the challengers - led Canterbury 24-0 at half time. The legendary Canterbury coach Alex “Grizz” Wyllie strode to the middle of Lancaster Park with a rugby ball under his arm - it was only a 5 minute break back then and players never left the field - and said to his team “there’s the bloody ball. Use it!”

Then he stormed off. His shell shocked players responded brilliantly. They lost the match 28-23 but they were in the game right to the final whistle.

Fast forward to the 2026 election. The National Party is down and out. Metaphorically they are behind 24 nil.

These thoughts are opined midway between the RNZ-Reid Research poll (Labour 30.8, National 25.9) and the 1News-Verian survey due in a few hours. I doubt there’ll be much change from last week when the Nats were on 28.

Simeon Brown is the National Party coach. A mild mannered youth as far removed from Grizz Wyllie’s persona you will not find. But he has to tell his troops “there’s the bloody ball. Use it!”

The ball in this case are the electorates. National hold 44 of them. This time there will be one fewer - 71 - than we have at the moment.

As has been pointed out numerous times National’s party vote is stuck in the high twenties, and if it’s moving in any direction it’s down. But for the sake of this argument let’s say the final number is 28 percent, and that entitles them to 34 seats.

The swing to Labour and National’s low party vote will likely take care of half a dozen of those 44 electorates. Banks Peninsula (majority 396) New Lynn (1013) West Coast Tasman (1017) Hutt South (1332) Mt Roskill (1564) and Wairarapa (2816) are the most vulnerable.

But on the other side of the ledger there are some real chances for National to take a constituency against the run of play.

Boundary changes suggest Wigram is a real chance for the Nats, Texas born candidate Candace Kinser leads in some polls in Auckland Central and Melissa Lee is behind by only a hair’s breadth in Mt Albert.

So here’s where coach Brown has to talk to his team. It’s well past half time in the big campaign match. His team is losing and their strategy is just all wrong.

The first question to ask is this. Does the National Party want to led the next government? Presumably the answer is - of course.

(If the answer is anything else then I just fear for the party and those running it.)

At this time only the most blinkered and visually impaired National supporter will see an improvement in their party vote. There is no killer blow policy or charismatic leader in the pipeline during the next month to move the dial. It is just not happening.

Therefore the tactics must change. In the nine or ten key electorates - the ones I mentioned above and in East Coast (National majority 3199) coach Simeon must direct his players to take down those hoardings with photos of Luxon and Willis and the message to “party vote National” and start pushing the National CANDIDATE vote.

In Hutt South use Bishop’s profile and have only him on the big signs. On the West Coast lift the profile of Katie Milne, the former Federated Farmers president, and at the same time suggest to Jamie Kleine - New Zealand First candidate and one time mayor of Westport who polled 15 percent there last week - that he should drop a few hints on Ms Milne’s behalf while pushing the NZF party vote. At the moment Mr Kleine’s popularity around his home patch opens the possibility of the Christchurch carpetbagger Rory Paterson coming through the middle to score for Labour.

The same applies in Wairarapa and Mt Albert. If the New Zealand First and Act candidates can work only on attracting party votes to leave the way clearer for Mike Butterick and Melissa Lee then the National Party cause will be helped no end.

In Wigram, for years a Labour stronghold but now very much in play because of boundary changes bringing in parts of the old Selwyn electorate, National should be all out to get Tracy Summerfield elected. That means ditching any presence of Luxon and Willis. The polls are proving time and time again they are dragging the National party vote south.

But I see no indication that coach Simeon is interested in changing tactics. It absolutely baffles me. His team is losing, and losing badly. Having only 34 seats through the list will not cut it. National have to get at least 40 constituency seats and hope that Act and New Zealand First can get 25 between them. The RNZ poll says they’ll only have 24 which might just be enough in a 127 seat House of Representatives, but that’s without factoring in a Te Pati Maori overhang.

In those glorious old days of 1985, Canterbury couldn’t quite retain glory but they gave it a seriously good shot after a significant tactical rethink.

National can kiss the Treasury benches good bye unless they change their game plan. It’s almost too late but there is time - just.

Writer and broadcaster for half a century. Now watching from the sidelines. Subscribe to Peter William's Substack here